Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Carried in the Leader (August 17-23, 2007 Issue, p.4)
Q: Has the water finally settled with the official split of the ODM?
A: As we approach October and thereafter, we are going to witness a frenzied campaign period with the country going into an election fever.
Q: So you see more alliances taking shape in the coming weeks?
A: Actually, this election will be about alliances. It will not be about parties or ideologies. At any rate, the two major political
formations in the country are not ideological vehicles. In the coming months we will see politicians jumping from party to party just to get votes. However, win or lose, we need to develop parties that will eventually be characterised by what they stand for and not who their leaders are. Pluralism is not an end in itself and at some point, Kenyans will have to find their level in politics by finding a way to use pluralism to enhance democracy, but this will take time. We now need to deal with the question of dethroning political parties from ethnic bases.
Q: So you don't see an end to leadership squabbles in ODM now that the main rivals, Kalonzo Musyoka and Raila Odinga, have parted ways?
A: ODM is a mass movement and it is not strange to have such wrangles. It has broad objectives and of necessity you have on board all sorts of people including opportunists. I think the disagreements are healthy but they may become counter productive if they go on for too long, as it happened with the original Ford. However, in the coming month, a clear roadmap should emerge depending on who has control of the main splinter group, though it would have been preferable they stayed together. However, despite the split, you cannot dismiss anything in a political process. Nobody believed something like Narc could come into being in the little time it did in 2002.
Q: What party are you going to stand on and must you toe Raila's line to re-enter active politics?
A: I am still in SDP but as I said earlier, people have to enter into coalitions and people do not want to be excluded from the mainstream. People from Luo Nyanza support Raila Odinga for a reason but there have been instances where individuals have made it to Parliament even after going against the grain. Therefore, I do not agree that it is impossible to win a seat if you are not on his side. The question one should ask themselves however is why he is enjoying that support, which has gone beyond the regional or Nyanza borders. Perhaps it is because of his democratic credentials that were exemplified by walking away from both Presidents Moi and Kibaki.
Q: Do you think people like Foreign Affairs minister Raphael Tuju can make it outside Raila's chosen vehicle?
A: I am not saying he will not make it but there is a bigger question that must be addressed before one chooses what vehicle to travel in. As I said, people do not want to be excluded.
Q: Have you made peace with Raila?
A: We have only differed on issues of strategy and tactics, which may have come out in more antagonistic terms than they were.
Nevertheless, while there could be justification for compromise, from my perspective, I felt, it was not easy to make such compromises.
An example is when Raila chose to work with Moi in government; something I felt could not herald any reforms. However, Raila thought he could use this as a Trojan horse and somehow he caused a stir from within Kanu. One could be right but if you go against the multitude, you might not get to the destination - you have to keep in step.
Q: You have been a very active and popular practicing lawyer - why do you want to go back to active politics?
A: At times, you feel there are things you want to do and these can only be done by getting involved in the political process. These include using Parliament to bring transformation in the political arena, Judiciary and the constitutional debate. I would also like to see national resources properly utilised through Parliament legally addressing the existing inequalities. The floor of the House is a great arena for pressing for change as long as you have people who are driven by commitment to build that nation and to create a new Kenya. There have been people who have in the past though in minority, have made a difference in Parliament. These include the late Jean-Marie Seroney, George Anyona and JM Kariuki. Were it not for JM, there would not be private members motions in Parliament today. I may not change the world when I get there, but I believe I can make a contribution that can make a difference through strengthening parliament as an institution. We need to de-construct the Moi State, which existed more than four years since Narc took over, by removing oppressive tools like the Provincial Administration that continues to be applied today.
Q: What are your chances of getting back to Parliament?
A: I have a very fair chance. The first time I contested the Ugenya seat I had just been out of college, but ran against a minister who was quite popular and people in the constituency have come to the realisation that I was not wrong when I kept out of the mainstream in the last elections. Nobody is throwing mud at me for taking the principled stand I took in 2002, as at times it is better to be right and lose than to be wrong and win. In addition, do not forget that even in the current Parliament there are MPs who got are there courtesy of small parties outside Kanu and Narc.
Q: Have you given up your presidential ambitions?
A: For me it, contesting the presidency was a platform to be exploited and the question is whether it was effectively used.
I was trying to show Kenyans that there was a different way of doing things - which the answer did not lie in Narc or Kanu.
I still harbour the ambition to build a strong political party for effective democrats who would be driven by ideologies and I am totally opposed to parties where "wolves pretend to be sheep.
Q: How do you rate presidential hopefuls Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka and Mwai Kibaki?
A: The agenda for reform must be highest on the minds of Kenyans. The country needs a reformer and a reformist movement for us to achieve an effective political transformation.
Q: Of what value would Charity Ngilu be to Raila's ODM?
A: You cannot underrate Charity Ngilu as she has fought and risen from the trenches. She played a very critical role in the formation of Narc and rose to be a cabinet minister and certainly, she has a constituency.
Q: Do you believe Raila when he says he will be a one-term president in the new power sharing line up?
A: Unlike the case of the African statesman, Nelson Mandela, in the Kenyan context, there has to be a law in place indicating that one is a transitional president serving a single term.
Q: How do you rate the Ninth Parliament?
A: This Parliament has been a big disappointment to all. It has been a very selfish Parliament that remained unconcerned to its national and patriotic duties. It is a Parliament that was decisively elected and for the first time since independence, the country elected a new president and parliament from another party other than Kanu. It was given the mandate to bring about a new constitutional order, but it has wasted the chance and it will take a long time to create a similar situation.
The "other" James Orengo:
Tuesday, April 03, 2007
A few days after the opposition/civil society constitutional reform lobby group Muungano wa Katiba Mpya included the demand for a 50% + 1 presidential victory threshold as one of the non-negotiables in the upcoming minimum reforms vuta ni kuvute, Kenyans woke up one morning to discover that President Mwai Kibaki is soaring high on the opinion polls, floating on a 51% popularity crest.
Me thinks NOT.
Steadman’s Waititu & Co. insist it is a thoroughly scientific and objective indicator gleaned from polls using tried and tested poll methods.
Look, they point out, the former polls favourite from Mwingi is sagging and dipping while the media savvy Hummer owner from Lang’ata is making up some lost ground as the Presidential marathon reaches its quarter-way mark.
In an ironic case of unconscious mirth, Steadman chose to release their astonishing findings on the eve of the one day in the year devoted to practical jokes, planned silliness and unregulated foolishness.
I saw a posting on the internet from one Ottawa-based Kenyan pundit who was utterly convinced that Waititu’s boss was unleashing an unfunny April Fool’s joke on us.
To be fair to the skewed pollsters, I think they were taking their work extremely seriously and had a sense of timing of their own.
Here is my theory:
The Steadman Group is part of President Kibaki’s Reelection Campaign Team.
The outfit's quarterly polls are expected to bolster the illusion that the incumbent at State House is very popular with the Kenyan electorate and that his return to a five year term is nothing but a foregone conclusion.
I am also convinced that Steadman’s MAIN employers are NOT the local Muthaiga and Runda based Mount Kenya fat cats around the Othaya MP, but rather more sinister forces working in cahoots and at the behest of the US government.
I say this even as some media outlets point a finger at one of Kibaki’s aides as a co-owner of the polling company-but more on that later…
Why on earth would the Americans want Kibaki back in office?
Well, because like Moi, he is the devil they know and his government seems to have no qualms whatsoever in doing the bidding for US geo-political interests not just in Kenya but in the eastern Africa, Horn, Indian Ocean and Middle-Eastern region.
Sign posts which back me up are the ongoing military/intelligence/diplomatic/PR blitzkrieg whose highlights include the ongoing genocidal shelling by the Ethiopians of Mogadishu, the joint military operations to quell the Uniion of Islamic Courts challenge in fractured and fissured Somalia; the abduction of Kenyan citizens and their detention in Kenyan, Somali and Ethiopian secret prisons before their shipment to the notorious torture camp illegally located in the occupied Guantanamo Bay; the clandestine counter-terrorism efforts in our country without our collective consent; the plans to locate the command of another US military outpost in our country; using Kenya as a conduit to gain an economic and commercial beach head in Sudan and possibly the Democratic Republic of the Congo etc.
Given these overriding ideological, commercial and geo-political imperatives, the United States government, has in my view, decided to turn a convenient blind eye to the rot of tribalism in Kibaki’s regime; the culture of impunity against corrupt Anglo-Leasing kingpins, the narco-tycoons using drug money to finance the Livondo money rainmaker types; state brutality against workers, hawkers, youth and the impoverished lumpen-proletariat and rampant violation of wananchi’s fundamental human rights.
Uncle Sam has decided to enter into the Kenyan 2007 election campaign and ensure that their man, who happens to be the lame-duck head of state named Kibaki, is back in the political saddle.
But Steadman was projecting Kalonzo Musyoka the heir apparent just a couple of months ago, I hear some of my readers loudly protest, fighting off imminent apoplectic fits.
Well, that was two months ago when the sections of the US far right religious lobby thought that the Mwingi MP was tailor made to be Kenya’s Teflon man-with his boyish good looks, his neo-conservative family values, pro-life credo and lightweight political credentials.
But it has since dawned on them and others that Kalonzo may not be able to pull off the ODM-K coronation after all, because of his lone-ranger proclivities.
How about Raila Odinga?
No less an authority than his Karen neighbour and Nyanza nemesis Raphael Tuju was claiming in Malindi not too long ago that Agwambo was too soft in denouncing the anti-terrorism bill which implicitly meant that the Lang’ata MP was a tool of the Americans, according to the country’s swaggering Foreign Affairs minister.
But that was before it became clear that would be next occupant of the White House is probably closer to Raila than any other Kenyan presidential aspirant including Mwai Kibaki who was the one who effectively fired Obama Sr when Barrack’s dad was a senior economist in Kibaki’s ministry.
If I am correct in my postulation-and I would like someone to debunk me with facts, then the stakes in the 2007 Presidential elections are much higher with all these external imperialist forces entering the fray.
Back to Steadman and opinion polling in particular.
I have not hidden my open skepticism about the efficacy, accuracy and general credibility of polls, as one can see from this October 2005 JUKWAA posting.
I spent a good chunk of today googling around for a second, third, fourth and fifth opinion and I want to share some of those perspectives now.
Nathan Solomon, a well-known US commentator had this opinion to express about opinion polls:
… The more we trust polls, the more they are likely to mislead us. Often, the fault is not in the pollsters but in ourselves: we’re too eager to believe that the numbers add up to the truth…at best, polls offer us flat snapshots of a three-dimensional world. At worst, when they are funded by partisans, polls may be purposely deceptive. In those cases, faulty polling can come back to haunt those who initially seemed to benefit from it… Regardless of their quality, polls that depict public opinion end up altering it…Some polls are skewed by intensive efforts to sway the electorate. For example, in times of crisis, many presidents have been able to orchestrate publicity that spikes the poll numbers…SOURCE.
Bill Kovach, another respected American journalist observed in 1990:
Our democracy is not merely a matter of registering preconceived notions and opinions of individuals. That approach was rejected in the design of our government in favor of a representative system by which matters of government would be debated and issues resolved by consensus achieved by compromise…Most public opinion surveys now conducted by news organizations record private opinion, and the consumers confuse the results with public thought. Few surveys examine the depth of understanding behind an opinion or the context of an opinion…because it focuses on the surface movements of opinion rather than their informing depths, I am afraid the press is unwittingly a part of the process of manipulating public opinion devised by the political campaigns…it is part of the old question: Do opinion polls shape opinion or they measure opinion? I think a compelling argument could be made that in the absence of strong and sustained reporting on the facts underlying an issue, polls can and do shape and create opinion...SOURCE.
A Wikipedia piece on public opinion notes:
…Public opinion can be influenced by public relations and the political media. Additionally, mass media utilizes a wide variety of advertising techniques to get their message out and change the minds of the people. A continuously used technique is propaganda…The tide of public opinion becomes more and more crucial during political elections, most importantly elections determining the national executive.
A related article on the same website on opinion polls cautions its readers:
Since most people do not answer calls from strangers, or refuse to answer the poll, poll samples may not be representative samples from a population. Because of this selection bias, the characteristics of those who agree to be interviewed may be markedly different from those who decline. That is, the actual sample is a biased version of the universe the pollster wants to analyze. In these cases, bias introduces new errors, one way or the other, that are in addition to errors caused by sample sizes…Survey results may be affected by response bias, where the answers given by respondents do not reflect their true beliefs. This may be deliberately engineered by unscrupulous pollsters in order to generate a certain result or please their clients, but more often is a result of the detailed wording or ordering of questions. Respondents may deliberately try to manipulate the outcome of a poll by e.g. advocating a more extreme position than they actually hold in order to boost their side of the argument or give rapid and ill-considered answers in order to hasten the end of their questioning. Respondents may also feel under social pressure not to give an unpopular answer…Another source of error is the use of samples that are not representative of the population as a consequence of the methodology used…For example, telephone sampling has a built-in error because in many times and places, those with telephones have generally been richer than those without. Alternately, in some places, many people have only mobile telephones. Because pollsters cannot call mobile phones (it is unlawful in the USA) to make unsolicited calls to phones where the phone’s owner many be charged simply for taking a call) these individuals will never be included in the polling sample. If the subset of the population without cell phones differs markedly from the rest of the population, these differences can skew the results of the poll…By providing information about voting intentions, opinion polls can sometimes influence the behavior of electors. The various theories about how this happens can be split up into two groups: bandwagon /underdog effects, and strategic (‘tactical’) voting. A bandwagon effect occurs when the poll prompts voters to back the candidate shown to be winning in the poll…The opposite [underdog effect] occurs when people vote, out of sympathy, for the party perceived to be “losing” the elections…SOURCE.
The Gallup Organization is probably the world’s most well-known polling organization.
It first rose to prominence in 1936 when its founder George Gallup correctly predicted that Franklin Delano Roosevelt would win by a landslide against his Republican opponent, defying the conventional wisdom and projections by the then most prestigious polling publication, the Literary Digest.
However, in the 1948 US Presidential elections, Gallup was at the centre of one of the most infamous cases of pollsters getting it 100% wrong in a presidential election:
…The presidential election of 1948 would prove almost as devastating to Gallup as the 1936 contest was to Literary Digest. Because the Democratic Party was splintered with Henry A. Wallace running for president on the Progressive party ticket and Strom Thurmond representing the Dixiecrats, Harry Truman appeared to have little chance to retain the White House against the bid of the Republican nominee, Thomas Dewey. Gallup and the other major pollsters believed that public opinion only showed dramatic change when responding to important events. A poll taken after the political conventions would surely predict the winner. Gallup stopped polling in mid-October, and although he noted a surge in support for Truman, he felt confident that Dewey would win the election. All the experts agreed with him. Truman did not stop campaigning however; he beat the odds and won the election. "The pollsters became national laughingstocks", according to Michael Wheeler, author of Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics, and "Gallup, the most famous pollster of them all, took the hardest fall…"Gallup was also accused of favoritism, a charge that could prove devastating to a man whose business depended on impartiality. Although Gallup vehemently denied the he rigged polls to favor Dewey, he admitted that he considered Dewey to be a close friend and had been in contact with him throughout the 1948 campaign…Gallup’s final years were not…without controversy. In 1968, two of Gallup’s interviewers were discovered to have falsified data in a poll of Harlem residents conducted for the New York Times. More troubling were charges that Gallup’s people maintained improper ties to the Nixon administration. Poll numbers were provided before publication, allowing Nixon to prepare the public and put the best possible spin on the results. Nixon’s aides also suggested questions for the Gallup Poll, thus influencing public opinion from the outset. The Nixon administration used both Gallup and rival Louis Harris, misleading the pollsters’ associates into thinking that Nixon would not make improper use of early poll results. At the very least, the pollsters were naïve. The fact that Gallup officials only met with Nixon aides in a hotel rather than the White House was a tacit admission that if such contact were known to the public the company’s reputation for objectivity would be compromised…SOURCE.
So much then, for the much vaunted “scientific, impartial objectivity” of the so called “reputable” polling organizations in the United States of America.
Coming back to Kenya, here is what the Nairobi-based muck-racking Weekly Citizen has to say in its current (Vol.10 Issue No.16 April 2nd–8th April 2007) issue:
…Kibaki men using the once reputable Steadman pollsters have taken the war into ODM-K by having a poll survey adulterated to show that Raila is now more popular than Kalonzo. The trick is reportedly intended to worsen the ODM headache as Kibaki men want Raila to be adamant in going for the presidency. It is not lost on political watchers that Steadman Company is now partly owned by a Kibaki confidante, Joe Wanjui, Vice-Chancellor of Nairobi University...
I concur with those pundits who posit that the latest Steadman poll is a stratagem to scuttle the ODM-K opposition by fostering the myth of Kibaki’s invincibility and inevitable destiny as a two-term head of state.
We should not de-link the results of the Steadman polls from the recent fear-mongering by NSE head and Kibaki supporter Jimnah Mbaru that the identification of a single ODM-K candidate would send the stock market into a tailspin.
Was Mr. Mbaru implying that the Kenyan stock market is dominated by supporters of Kibaki? Not a very smart thing to impute, especially given the ethnic connotations of this presumed support.
Playing a supporting role is the beer-guzzling Archbishop Nding'i Mwana a'Nzeki- a bosom buddy of the Prezzo- who thinks it is part of his spiritual job description as head of the Catholic Church in this country to urge Kenyans to "accept" the verdict of the latest Steadman soothsaying.
Polling, fear mongering and planting of state propaganda in government-friendly newspapers, radio stations and television outlets have been staples of American political campaigns for over one hundred years.
The importation of the same odious and opprobrious tactics into Kenya’s election year underscores the extent to which Uncle Sam is desperate to influence and dictate the outcome of the Kenyan presidential elections. I have alluded to the ideological and geo-political motivations.
Memo to the back room American strategists and spinmeisters burning the midnight oil plotting Kibaki’s re-election:
You are wasting your time and frittering American tax payers’ money by backing the wrong donkey (Oops! Sorry, meant to say horse).
Mwai Kibaki’s time-barred regime will reprise its Referendum 2005 fate.
Relying on the 2002 professorial loser Daniel arap Moi for bedrock support is like Barrack Obama asking Newt Gingrich to go to bat for the US Democrats.
Bad, doomed idea in short.
In my opinion, the current wrangles and pitched battles in NARC-Kenya, DP and NARC presents the ODM-K with a potential golden harvest. Mukhisa Kituyi, Danson Mungatana and Kipruto Kirwa are now pariahs as far as the REAL OWNERS of that Mount Kenya party are concerned. DP to its credit has kicked out Mwiraria, Kiraitu, Karua and other NARC-K high flyers while Ngilu has refused to be compromised to give way for Kibaki in the shell of the original NARC.
In sharp contrast to the fake braggadocio permeating Steadman’s rosy poll projections, Team Kibaki actually lies in near shambles at the moment even as the septuagenarian and octogenarian tribal comprador tycoons cocoon themselves in a self-delusionary bubble of a decades-long Mt. Kenya Reich lording over Kenyans from here to eternity.
ODM-K should move left wards to embrace progressive elements in civil society and anti-imperialist formations while consolidating its social base by being vocal in issues affecting workers, students, women, youth, Muslims, marginalized ethno-cultural minorities and so on.
I will elaborate more on some of these suggestions in the coming days…
Friday, March 30, 2007
Report from the Toronto Star:
911 Call Ends In Murder Charge
Mar 29, 2007 04:30 AM
The Toronto police homicide unit was called yesterday to a condominium high-rise in the city's north end after a man called 911 to say his wife was not breathing.
Officers arrived at 35 Finch Ave. E., just east of Yonge St., around 3 p.m. and discovered the lifeless body of Rispah Adala, 32.
As a result of evidence retrieved in their eighth-floor apartment, police said, the woman's husband of two years was arrested on suspicion of second-degree murder and taken to 32 Division, where he was questioned by police late into the night.
According to a source, the couple, who had no children, had gotten into an argument earlier in the day.
"On its face, it looks like a domestic," said Homicide Det. Sgt. Steve Ryan.
He added that it is still too early in the investigation to determine the cause of the woman's death.
A post-mortem is scheduled for today, but a source said it appeared as if the victim had been strangled.
One resident, who asked not to be identified, said the condo is popular with young professionals.
"I'm shocked that something like this would happen here," said the woman, who did not know the couple.
"There's never been anything negative here."
The suspect in this matter is Julius Otukul, 34.
Earlier this evening (Thursday, March 29, 2007) past the prime Kenyan television news at nine, just before ten o’clock, I was getting more and more irritated with my brother and my spouse as we sat in the living room downstairs.
I kept repeating over and over:
“Do you know that Rispah is dead? She was apparently strangled yesterday by the man she wedded just a few months ago!”
They kept giving me half-sympathetic and partially bewildered glances, temporarily distracted from the murder/thriller/mystery they were transfixed on over on the Citizen channel.
Finally, in a fit of pique, I stormed upstairs to my home-office, muttering darkly that they apparently did not care about the March 28th 2007 domestic tragedy in
Getting ready to keyboard this piece after reflecting on the biggest breaking story affecting Kenyans in
After all, they did not know who I was talking about.
I placed a quick call to her friend Roseanne, a former
These days Roseanne, who was trained in the sciences, is a rising star in Kenyan haute couture fashionista circles for her unique khanga (leso) based designs.
Unsurprisingly, unlike me, she had heard the sad news much much earlier in the day.
As for me, I literally stumbled on the news at a
On the internet, I had stopped by one of the many Kenyan online boards that I visit every other day to find out what Kenyan netters and bloggers are nattering and yabbering about.
There was this story on this one site talking about a Kenyan woman being killed in
My heart stopped briefly when I eye-balled Rispah Adala’s name.
I silently screamed in that overheated café.
Can’t be, I quickly and firmly retorted and reiterated in my agitated internal dialogue.
First gut reaction was to dismiss it as one of the many hoaxes one encounters daily on that particular Kenyan site-a haven for hydra handled identity thieves who are notorious for their wild stories.
But then I saw the link to City TV news, a major channel in that Canadian city.
Still unbelieving, I quickly dashed over to the kco-l yahoo groups site- the home for the Kenyan community in
And sure enough, there was Ben Ondoro, the President of Kenya Community in Ontario organization mournfully informing his co-members of the sad demise of Rispah, who happened to be the current Treasurer of that organization.
I scrolled through the flood of condolences on the site in profound disbelief and lingering denial, not wanting to accept that one of the most vibrant, most vivacious, most generous and community oriented Kenyans I have ever known in Canada was now a cold corpse rigid in some obscure Greater Toronto Area morgue.
If I said that Rispah was one of my closest friends, I would be lying through my teeth.
I knew her the way most Kenyan-Ontarians knew her:
Through her indefatigable community spirit.
She was ever present at the Madarakas, the Jamhuris, the Hengs.
Rispah was always among the first people to fire off her rambi rambis whenever a fellow Kenyan (or East African) lost a loved one and at the front-line of any uplifting Kenyan community function- be it a social, business or professional event. She was a prolific poster on the kco-l discussion site-her last posting on March 25th 2007 forwarding a sardonic link on Agwambo’s H3.
An academic genius, Rispah was one of the most down to earth people I knew in
I still remember that Jamhuri party in December ’03 held at the
Kenyans descended on
And right there amidst the din, the waving arms, gyrating hips and chorus of laughter was Rispah Adala having fun, thoroughly enjoying herself surrounded by her Kenyan sisters and brothers.
The last time I remember seeing Rispah in person was at another Kenyan community function in 2004. I had gone over to their table to say hi.
She shyly introduced me to a quiet thirtysomething Ugandan man:
“Oloo, I want you to meet my fiancé.”
He is the man in the cool tuxedo embracing the enchanting bride named Rispah in the August 2006 wedding photo which was flashed today at the aforesaid American-based Kenyan site.
Is he also the same man sitting in a Canadian police cell waiting to be arraigned in court for second degree murder?
Are those the same hands that squeezed the last gasp of life from Rispah Adala?
Of course, it is way too early to jump to conclusions and I am not going to play Barnaby Jones or Perry Mason tonight.
Today, I join Kenyans in
Tonight my mkono wa tanzia is first of all to her mother, her father, her siblings, aunties, uncles, cousins, nieces, nephews, extended family, friends, former school-mates, professional colleagues and people in her immediate circle.
That extended family includes each and every Kenyan living in
Will she be brought home or will she be laid to rest in her home away from home?
That will come later.
For now I pen off with:
Hamba Kahle Nyaminwa Rispah!
Your generous community spirit keeps you alive in all our hearts.
photo: Nyamweya Osoro
Here you are living and breathing talking to us about your MBA...
Monday, March 12, 2007
Onyango Oloo Revisits A Message He Sent to ODM in November 2005
I have been following the events surrounding the ill-fated trip by ODM members to
There are a couple of things I want to say before recycling a document I had sent to the ODM leadership-in November 2005.
One of those things is that part of the problems bedeviling ODM-Kenya is that it is NOT a political party, but rather, an electoral matatu propelling some of
The other thing worth pointing out is that ODM-K started climbing the tree from the top rather than from the bottom.
Thirdly, ODM-K makes the headline news most often not because they are pushing issue-based politics but rather engaging in spats or covering up insinuations that spats and rows are taking place in the first place.
Fourthly, as all these mini-feuds break out all over place with increasing predictability, the struggling wananchi are hungry for concrete alternatives and hankering for sustainable solutions to issues like poverty, unemployment, gender-based violence, corruption, expropriation and repatriation of Kenyan natural and human resources etc.
Fifthly, the allegation that Raila Odinga and his associates tried to stage manage an event in
Let me give two illustrations to back me up.
On Wednesday, April 8, 1992 Raila Odinga and Gitobu Imanyara arrived in
The second event was on Friday, August 25th, 2000. The venue this time was the Public Library at Dufferin and Eglinton West. We chose that place because one of us, James Karanja Ng’ang’a was one of the senior staff there and so it was easy for him to secure the hall located in the basement of the building. We had organized a public session featuring
Najib Balala, Kavetsa Adagala, Orwa Ojode, Peter Kyalo Kaindi, Professor Tumbo, Raila Odinga, William Ruto, Matunda Nyanchama and Adongo Ogony.
I remember having a run in with Ndhiwa MP Orwa Ojode- who saw himself as a very close aide to the Lang’ata MP at that period. Hon. Ojode railed at me when I informed him that ALL the visitors without exception would be limited to a 10 minute initial intervention before opening up the floor to the public participants. Ojode was adamant in demanding more time for Agwambo, arguing vociferously that Raila was a cut above the rest and therefore we could not keep a cap on how long it should take the Langata legislator to address the audience.
This back and forth went on for some time.
Ironically, it was Raila Odinga himself who resolved the impasse by informing Ojode that their entourage was visiting Toronto at the invitation of the local Kenyan community and that therefore they couldn’t and shouldn’t interfere with arrangements made by the organizers on the ground. As things turned out, the public session proved to be very fruitful with audience hanging around until very close to half past eleven at night.
I have had more than my fair share of organizing similar community-based public events in
My suspicions of what may or may not have happened in
Perhaps we will await the emergence of more facts before commenting much further.
All the same, and regardless of where you stand on the whole PR debacle, one keeps getting the nagging thought that all these issues on who the ODM-K’s flag bearer should be largely spring from the history of the ODM-K itself and the ideological underpinnings of its leading lights.
It is one’s fervent hope that the internal mud-slinging- if that is what it is- does not degenerate to the point where it resuscitates the dashed hopes of the totally discredited and self-destructing NARC-Kenya electoral machine.
It would be tragic not just for ODM-Kenya and its massive social base but also those patriotic Kenyans who have been hoping against hope that ODM-K may miraculously turn out to be the new political messiah, despite the ferociousness of the apparent infighting within its high flying “luminaries”.
With that long prologue, let me now recycle a document I wrote and submitted to the ODM leadership way back on November 30, 2005:
Viable Structures for the
A Contribution by Onyango Oloo
[Following a discussion with some key members of the ODM in the days following the November 2005 Referendum victory for the NO forces, I was invited to submit a brief outline that was to be discussed internally within the Orange Democratic Movement.. What follows below is that contribution.]
1.0. The Historical and Ideological Context of the
The overwhelming rejection of the Wako Draft by 3.5 million Kenyans climaxing the just concluded referendum campaign has a deep significance far beyond the mainstream contestations of power that have pitted the NAK faction against the LDP and her KANU allies.
In the first place, it must be appreciated as the THIRD consecutive democratic victory garnered by the Kenyan people in almost as many years, following close on the heels of the Unbwogable Victory in December 2002 that brought an end to 40 years of KANU rule and the democratic breakthrough that punctuated the Bomas Triumph in March 2004. A key aspect of those three events is the massive participation of millions of ordinary wananchi in effecting peaceful democratic change in
In the second place, the NO win marked a further opening up of democratic space precisely at a time when a section of the ruling elite was trying to sneak in disturbing precursors to a civilian dictatorship with creeping fascist tendencies. Despite the naked use of state terror in the form of brazen police brutality put in motion to crush peaceful and very well attended Orange rallies, the wananchi and their leaders were resolute in pushing for a reaffirmation of the tenets that led to the multi-party coalition which caused such a seismic shift in Kenya and beyond at the end of 2002.
In the third place, the Orange Victory has radically redefined the notions of who is to be counted among the “reformist” forces and who represented the forces of reaction. In an almost cruel ironic inversion, the heroes and sheroes of the reform movement of yesteryear emerged as some of the most vicious attack dogs at the forefront of shoring up an increasingly tribal cabal: names like Kiraitu Murungi, Koigi wa Wamwere, Kivutha Kibwana etc rush to mind. In the meantime, KANU which had become a by-word for repression, dictatorship and retrogressive politics managed to reinvent itself as a patriotic democratic formation counting among its ranks some of the most articulate defenders of our patriotic and democratic values: names like Uhuru Kenyatta, William Ruto and Mutula Kilonzo come to the foreground. In the meantime, the NAK faction led by President Kibaki, the hitherto self-declared “reformist wing” of the NARC administration thoroughly discredited itself among the Kenyan people by its naked appeal to the worst vestiges of ethnic chauvinism, overt state propaganda vilifying its perceived “enemies” and naked employment of the most tawdry manifestations of shameless pork barrel politics. This coming in the aftermath of the series of corruption linked scandals like Anglo Leasing, La Rue Gate and the embarrassing travel ban slapped on one of the most rabid hawks of the Kibaki kitchen cabinet went a long way in squandering the massive popular mandate given to NARC when it took over from KANU in January 2003.
In the fourth place, the opening up of democratic space had profound ramifications in the East and Central African region. We saw opposition forces in
and elsewhere mull over the NARC coalition experience as a possible template that could power their own march towards forming governments in their respective countries. Additionally the emergence of a popular government in Uganda Kenyaacted as one of the catalysts for the regional peace processes already underway in places like , Sudan etc. The Western countries initially warmed up to the prospect of doing business with the Kenyan government, before the NARC era corruption scandals emerged in the public domain to cool things off somewhat at the bilateral levels. Somalia
In the fifth place, the democratic breakthroughs in
between 2002 and 2005 were punctuated by the re-entry into national politics of SEVEN marginalized groups: the working people in the towns and countryside; the youth; women; Muslims; pastoral communities and ethnic minorities. Kenya
In the sixth place, the aforementioned developments helped to solidify the prestige, respect and popularity of several mainstream Kenyan politicians- almost exclusively the present leadership of the
Orangemovement who were seen as the real progressive and patriotic leadership recognized by the Kenyan wananchi. The LDP, even more than KANU was seen as “the real opposition”.
In the seventh place, all of the above pushed otherwise conservative politicians in the LDP, KANU, Ford-Kenya and Ford-People mainstream parties to try and reinvent themselves as agents of democratic reform or else risk the ire of the irate masses.
In the eighth place, the core of all the democratic advances was anchored in the decades-long demand for a new KATIBA.
2.0. The Patriotic Responsibilities of the
At the moment, the Orange Democratic Movement is seen across the country as the one force in the mainstream that can spearhead the national political salvation of
and is riding the crest of the post-referendum euphoria. Kenya
But let us not forget that this was precisely the position that Jomo Kenyatta and KANU found themselves in December 1963; that even Daniel arap Moi was seen to be a fresh gust of air following the repressive years of Kenyatta and the Kiambu Mafia and that the ORIGINAL Forum for the Restoration of Democracy in Kenya had the same delirious and enthusiastic backing that the ODM, and before it, NARC enjoys.
Time and time again, mainstream populist formations have been consistent in BETRAYING the trust, dashing the hopes and rubbishing the aspirations of the ordinary Mwananchi. This has been largely due to the fact that mass mobilization happens from above rather than below and that this mass mobilization is NOT de-linked from immediate electorate face offs. We notice that time and time again, politicians who are extremely popular with the wananchi use mass mobilization as a mfereji that is turned on and off for political expediency leading to the quick and disappointing demobilization of the very same wananchi who are largely responsible for the emergence of these leaders in the first place.
To be quite frank, the ODM is a very mixed gunia where you will find nduma mixed up with ngwache, mahindi, maharagwe, mchicha, kitungu saumu, pili pili hoho, biringanya and dania.
Orangecamp one finds veterans of the Kenyan reform movement as well as undisguised apologists for the status quo ante.
One finds consistent democrats as well as opportunistic political careerists.
There are those who are in
Orangebecause of genuine patriotic sentiments-coexisting with defeated candidates from the last election mulling over the cynical possibilities of clambering on board the Orangegari la moshi to re-enter Bunge.
Because of these internal contradictions, the Orange Democratic Movement can go one of two ways- it could be a proto-NAK formation that cynically exploits the wananchi’s kiu for democratic change in order to grab elitist power;
OR it could be a GENUINE launching pad for a new, Made In Kenya national democratic and liberation movement that will complete some of the historical and political tasks left over by the Mau Mau and earlier generations of Kenyan wazalendo like Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Makhan Singh, Elijah Masinde, Pio Gama Pinto, JM Kariuki, Jean Marie Seroney, Bildad Kaggia and many others.
It is entirely up to the leadership of the ODM to determine which fork in the political road the former NO camp will take.
3.0. Some Strategic Imperatives for the
In order to be a viable political force that eventually grows to rival the clout that South Africa’s ANC currently enjoys, the ODM MUST focus on the KEY democratic demands of the Kenyan people:
(a) The need for a new democratic constitution;
(b) The permanent participation of wananchi in all aspects of national politics;
(c) The need to deal with the Mashamba Question;
(d) Devolution of powers to ensure BOTH regional autonomy AND national unity;
(e) Equal participation of Kenyan women in all political, social, economic and cultural spheres;
(f) Developing a national ethos that says NO to impunity, corruption, sloth and political arrogance;
(g) The re-entry of Muslims, pastoral communities and ethnic minorities in national politics;
(h) Forging peaceful and friendly ties with all of our neighbours;
(i) Developing a truly independent foreign policy;
(j) Placing Kenyan national interests at the forefront of any negotiations with international financial institutions and multi-lateral bodies such as the WTO;
(k) Valorizing Kiswahili and other components of our national heritage over the blind adherence to what Ngugi wa Thiong’o called a Kasuku Culture;
Perhaps the reader will notice that NONE of the above points includes “winning the next general elections and propelling so and so to State House.”
It is my contention that the death of the
OrangeDemocratic Movement will kick in the moment the formation confines itself to a mad obsession with mainstream succession politics. The ordinary Kenyan people who are far ahead of the OrangeDemocratic Movement are NOT looking for a NARC retread or a Kibaki clone: they have been there and they have done that.
4.0. Creating Viable and Accountable Structures for
The ODM is a mseto cobbled together around the struggle for a new Katiba in
. Its broad nature precludes any narrow ideological prescriptions. Kenya
However, no matter how diverse, this cannot be an excuse for lack of principles.
Because of its very popularity, the
Orangemovement is destined to attract political wagongaji, matapeli and even magagula (conmen, fraudsters and night runners to the Kiswahili shy). Scores of wanna be MPs and potential cabinet ministers in waiting will dash to Orange HQs to pledge fealty to a movement which perhaps, they secretly disdain because they are NOT true democrats, true reformers or true patriots. That is why I want to suggest a few cornerstones for the development of a strong ODM:
i) A broad patriotic and democratic manifesto that potential ODM members must understand and adhere to;
ii) A code of conduct for all ODM leaders to eschew such things as corruption, tribalism, nepotism and lone-ranger horse trading mentalities;
iii) A conscious affirmative action to ensure that 50% of the ODM leadership is comprised of women, youth and ,marginalized communities;
iv) A mashinani based approach to movement building. Units of the ODM should start at the locational level if possible.
v) A culture of internal democracy and open dialogue and tolerance for dissent within the parameters of the aforesaid manifesto.
I could write more but I am confining myself to the limit that we had all agreed upon when I embarked on this little intervention. Models that speak to some of the structures I have in mind include: the African National Congress of
South Africa, Al Mubadara (The PalestineNational Initiative), Al Mubadara and ’s FDC (Force for Democratic Change). Uganda
I will provide copies of their structures shortly.
November 30, 2005
The only feedback I got from the ODM-K leadership came from two senior people-none of them Raila- who basically told me to come down to earth because hardly anyone in the ODM grappled with such theoretical and ideological issues. That was it!
Saturday, March 03, 2007
By Onyango Oloo in the Kenyan Capital
By Onyango Oloo in the Kenyan Capital
Absolute Delirium are the two words that best describe the pandemonium of self and collective congratulation that has been raging across
Watching NTV on Wednesday night (February 28, 2007) I was transfixed as images of Loreto ya Limuru’s red, Starehe’s blue and red, Aga Khan ya Mombasa’s white, assorted burgundies, greens and all hues in between provided a collage of youthful voices and agile bodies ululating, dancing and screaming in joy, and should we add, relief.
A Meru relative of mine just called me a couple of days ago confirming that he too, had surpassed the cut off points at the KCSE national examinations.
Today, I am not going to waste words celebrating with the winners and super star candidates.
Instead, I want to empathize with the TOP 100 LOSERS- both schools and individual students.
How does it feel, for instance, to be head teacher of one of the worst performing schools?
How does it feel to be the one student in the country who ended up dead last?
How does it feel to come from the province, the district, the division, the location or the village which produced the longest string of Fs in
Just like everyone else, I admire and I am inspired by academic diligence, youthful hard work, focus and discipline. Kudos to the straight A students, congratulations to all those teachers who prepared their students so well.
At the same time, I am saddened by this cut throat social darwinism in our pyramid of an education system.
Is this the way our young people should be prepared for adulthood and its many challenges in the work-place and society at large?
That the prize one should aim for is number one, often regardless of how one gets to that top spot?
Should our society really be one of WINNERS and LOSERS?
Given our fierce competitive world-beating track record in track and field, many of my readers may be actually wincing, wondering what I am going on and on and on about.
This winner takes all tradition is by no means confined to Kenya. In the Far East, the Indian sub-continent and even in Canada among families with origins in China, especially South Korea, India and some of the other Asian countries, this is often taken to extremes. There are numerous reports of very, very bright students committing suicide because they “only scored 98%” marring an otherwise perfect score! There are incidents of irate parents shunning and coming close to disowning such brilliant minds for the same reason.
What does it then say for those who got a string of Bs or even Cs in comparison?
How about the Ds the Es the Fs and the Gs???
The day before the day before yesterday, I opted to take a leisurely stroll over the foot bridge near the Nairobi railway station- you know the one behind the Kenya Polytechnic, the one that commences at the Vasco da Gama village. Going up the time-worn wooden steps I was going past a shuffling, hurrying and dashing human wave of workers trudging their way to Kencom, Tusker, Gill House and other matatu stops along Ronald Ngala, Tom Mboya and other streets.
Many of their countenances were panel beaten with exhaustion; many furrowed brows spoke eloquently of the daily frustrations of being a casual, a kibaruwa, a low paid toiler making factory owners rich while they could not earn enough to take public transport right outside their work-place. It did not matter whether it was a female or a male face, the story written was the same-not really looking forward to another working day.
As they zipped past me, I kept wondering how many of them had been Straight A primary school pupils; kept musing how many topped their districts in the form four exams, and how many of the older ones had flying colours in all the principals they had taken at the “A” levels of yore.
How many had to take up a job, any job after years of gruelling tarmacking?
How many had to quit school to support their younger siblings orphaned by HIV/AIDS?
How many simply could not afford the exorbitant fees demanded by institutions of higher learning?
It is obscene that in Kenya we laud social darwnism, a concept that is now seen as one of the modern corner stones for class-based discrimination.
Is our educational system really a race which guarantees the survival of the fittest?
The last time I checked, financially well-endowed schools in the heartland of Nairobi City were being lumped together with ramshackle ones stuck in the impoverished back waters of rural Kenya. Students from poor and struggling families in town and country were assumed to have the same equality of opportunity as those ones from middle and upper middle class families.
It is an open secret that some of the so called academic power-houses use very cynical and often unscrupulous methods to reinforce their schools with the best and brightest.
And even if we take this “success” on its own terms, at what price does it come?
Given the nature of our cut throat vicious pyramid curriculum, how many unconventional geniuses are we tossing by the wayside?
If we were to judge three IT biz whizs by Kenyan academic standards, we would certify them BIG LOSERS. I am referring to Microsoft’s Bill Gates, Apple’s Steve Jobs and Dell’s founder Michael. They ALL DROPPED OUT of college.
How many Kenyan Michael Jacksons and Stevie Wonders out there are wallowing in penury and obscurity because the Kenyan educational system does not recognize budding musical and other creative braniacs?
Apart from our world beating track and field stars (who are largely self- made) how far do our systems (not just the schools) identify and tap sports prowess?
Is it any wonder that Kenya is under-producing the Drogbas, E’toos, Essiens and Adebayors of the football pitch?
The other day I was talking to one of Kenya’s finest ever boxers (at the campus level) who is today a respected architect and lecturer at one of the country’s universities. He recalled a very sad tale of bumping into former Kenya world boxing and Olympic champion Steve Muchoki- a national legend and hero in the seventies and eighties-eking out a life of extreme poverty to the point where he could hardly afford bus fare.
Pugilists like Conjestina and Zarika in the contemporary period have detailed the urban poverty they endure in the slums of Nairobi even as they win accolade after accolade.
The unspoken story in all this, is that if it is the superstars who are saying this, what about the rest of the boxers out there?
A cousin to my spouse is on the Kenyan Tae Kwon Do team. Yet he remains jobless three years after finishing high school.
One could go on and on, but one will not…
Do our schools instill political consciousness among our country’s youth?
How many of them know the roles of people like Abdilatif Abdalla, Wanjiru Kihoro, Micere Mugo, James Orengo, Chelagat Mutai and George Rubik in the struggle for democracy in Kenya?
How many of them know the biography of the patriotic policeman known as Muindi Mbingu?
How many of them could contextualize the Nandi Resistance and its legendary hero Koitalel arap Samoei in the story of the birth of modern Kenya?How many of our youth can analyze the reasons why George Bush invaded Iraq in 2003?
How many can see the connection between the Asian Flu (and I am NOT talking about avian influenza) of 1997 and the insane speculation currently underway at the Nairobi Stock Exchange?
Are our schools training our learning youth to be critical thinkers or just automatons who can pass exams?
In fairness to our system, let me also concede that Canadian youth right up to university level fare more or less the same way.
When I was working with a social justice group based at McGill University in Montreal, Quebec between 2001 and 2005 I was often saddened to see students who had just written their final exams rush to sell, give away or throw away their text books- and it did not matter whether they were engineers, literature, medical or environmental science graduates. They were saying in effect that the ONLY reason they read their books in the first place, was to pass the exams that would give them their degrees.
I remember when I was part of a hiring committee with a certain Toronto-based housing non-profit during the late nineties being taken aback when a student who claimed to have a Masters in Political Science and was applying for a Zimbabwe placement with a human rights organization giving us BLANK STARES when we asked her to share with us her understanding of the term “social justice”.
I also read a piece over three years ago by an American commentator that in the US the situation is sometimes often worse than what we have in Kenya- with academic staff pressurized to give a passing grade to as many undergraduates regardless of the rigor of their academic performance- because campuses are seen as cash cows through which a conveyor belt populated by kids (especially of the rich) pass through.
My guru-I am talking about that dead German with the initials KM- had proposed a “polytechnical” approach to education. By which he envisaged well-rounded students who would be as comfortable with the so called “arts” as they would be with the “sciences”; students who could be as comfortable in the basket ball court as they would be in the physics lab; students who spoke a multiplicity of local and international languages; and of course, politically conscious students. Now, again, these things are NOT unheard of. The second highest female KCSE student last year and the top one in the whole of Eastern province not only hails from a humble peasant family- she also displayed a slew of more than a dozen extra-curricular certificates to demonstrate her all rounded skills and talents.
And speaking of winners and losers, already some of our brand new post-KCSE winners are already losers in the sense that close to sixty thousand candidates who qualified for university education will NOT be admitted because there is simply no room for them. And you wonder what the braniacs in the education ministry like Saitoti and Kilemi Mwiria have been doing in terms of ANTICIPATING this surge.
Almost everyday at our Kenya Social Forum offices here in Nairobi, a young person walks in armed with a sheaf of his or her academic qualifications. Many have second degrees and a string of diplomas and other credentials. Most of them have been tarmacking for at least one year. In the run up to the World Social Forum, hundreds of them registered as VOLUNTEERS in the hope that such high profile participation would add to their employability after the global event.